IT'S STILL THE ROGER AND RAFA SHOW
"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself" - FDR
"I just can't help the feeling I'm living a life of illusion" - Joe Walsh
These will be the competing inner thoughts for those men who seek to challenge Roger the Great in 2007. Up to this point, only Rafael Nadal has seemed able to actualize the words of America's greatest 20th century President. The rest of the field has bowed down to the number one player and appears to have convinced themselves that the notion of defeating Federer is illusory.
2007 will prove to be a crucial year in this Era of Federer. Either he will further solidify his deserved stature and lay claim to the title of the ultimate player of the Open Era or Rafael Nadal will accelerate his improvement and threaten Federer on multiple surfaces.
Nadal will continue to be the featured topic on this site for some time to come, as the anti-Roger, until someone emerges and joins Rafa to take on the real Athlete of the Year, Roger Federer. (Don't want to waste too much time here complaining but it is an utter travesty that Federer was not picked as Sports Illustrated's Sportsman of the Year. Even the guy who won the AP award, a golfer named Woods, concurred that his new found buddy Roger deserved the accolade)
It is my belief that Nadal will continue to be the only continuous threat to Federer in 2007 - at least until the up-and-comers - the mercurial Andy Murray from Great Britain, France's super-talented Richard Gasquet and the hard-hitting Tomas Berdych from the Czech Republic - can find a way to consistently thwart the strengths of Federer. Berdych and Murray have both claimed victories over Federer in his three-year run at immortality but not in a Grand Slam event.
For the afore-mentioned to rise up to the challenge they must - control their moodiness (Murray), become more consistent and reign in their shots just a bit (Gasquet) and improve their court movement (Berdych). (As for Federer's weaknesses, there really aren't any except he could develop a more powerful service return. )
Though Nadal has lost to Berdych a couple of times and has similar problems with another hard, flat hitter in James Blake, these players have not shown the mettle to advance to the penultimate round of a Grand Slam as of yet. And with Nadal almost a sure bet to improve and expand his game, I doubt that his #2 slot is in jeopardy.
Andy Roddick made undeniable progress on his way to the US Open final, assisted by the exhortations of coach Jimmy Connors to turn himself into a more complete player. His forays into the net, no matter how ill-advised at times, were proof that he is ready to put full effort to regain permanent residency in the top five.
I do believe that we will have someone halfway to a true Grand Slam by the time Wimbledon arrives - and his name is Nadal. (part of this I confess is wishful thinking yet I do believe Federer's reign of complete dominance will come to an abrupt end this year, as he will claim no more than one Slam title in 2007) I think Nadal is ready to triumph Down Under. (Note - I will have a more extensive preview of the Australian Open when the draw is announced on Friday, January 12th.) Nadal's conditioning is superior to all other players - again, as usual, with the exception of Federer whose practice and tournament preparation is second to none - and will be of great benefit in the stifling heat in Melbourne which usually claims a few victims.
The second reason, and this has been widely discussed, is the Rebound Ace courts are definitely slower than the Deco Turf hard courts which serves as the terrain at Flushing Meadows. This will most likely allow Nadal to get the ball up high to Federer's backhand side which has been the main advantage in their compelling rivalry. The higher bounce will also neutralize, somewhat, the early ball strikers like Berdych and Blake.
One will be able to gauge Nadal's development immediately in the first couple of rounds in Australia. He has apparently worked diligently to diversify his game this off-season and it will be fascinating to watch if he takes the ball earlier, sends his powerful missives more consistently deep into the back-court and wins more free points on his serve and increasingly effective volley.
January is a wonderful time for tennis-starved fans in the throes of winter (well winter as we used to know it as the East Coast has been bereft of any seasonal weather thus far). The late nights and very early AM's spent viewing ESPN's live coverage is a wonderful way to start the year. This year's Australian championship should start the transition from the Roger Era to an as yet determined epoch.
